欧冠悲喜之夜!4队同分:3队上岸,1队赢球出局,仅1%概率
欧冠联赛阶段第8轮,18场大战同时开打。赛制改革后的欧冠,确实精彩、好看,悬念一直延续到最后时刻。这个欧冠之夜,几家欢喜几家愁,也让人认识到竞技体育的残酷性:同为11分,有1队输球上岸,却有球队赢球出局。
前7轮,萨格勒布迪纳摩8分-8个净胜球,11分-2个净胜球,都有出局的可能性。最后1轮,两支球队经历悲喜两重天:
卡纳瓦罗执教的萨格勒布迪纳摩,爆出超级冷门,2-1战胜AC米兰,欧冠8轮拿到11分。对AC米兰来说,这是致命的失利——赢球就能直通16强的红黑军团,硬是把自己逼入附加赛,多踢2场比赛不说,进16强也充满悬念。
布鲁日客场挑战曼城,1-0领先的局势下,布鲁日遭到逆转,1-3落败,目送曼城绝处逢生,获得附加赛资格。11分-4个净胜球的布鲁日,也被曼城超越。
欧冠积分榜上划出一条“生死线”:
第24名的布鲁日,11分-4个净胜球,本轮输球上岸,获得附加赛资格。
第25名的萨格勒布迪纳摩,11分-7个净胜球,本轮赢球出局。
对萨格勒布迪纳摩来说,这是很可惜的结局,因为3个净胜球的差距,萨格勒布迪纳摩无缘附加赛,欧冠之路就此划上句号。分析萨格勒布迪纳摩出局的原因,第1轮挖坑太深:2-9惨败拜仁,开局就是-7个净胜球。如果第1轮只输2-6,萨格勒布迪纳摩还能获得附加赛资格。
欧冠赛前,OPTA通过大数据模型,进行10000次模拟实验,得出结论是:欧冠拿到11分,获得附加赛资格的概率为99%。换句话说,像萨格勒布迪纳摩这样11分出局的现象,概率仅有1%!本赛季的欧冠,11分球队有4支,曼城、葡萄牙体育、布鲁日都获得附加赛资格,唯有萨格勒布迪纳摩出局。
无论如何,2-1击败AC米兰,能够让萨格勒布迪纳摩感到骄傲。51岁的卡纳瓦罗,去年年底接手萨格勒布迪纳摩,欧冠首秀0-3负于阿森纳,第2场2-1战胜AC米兰。作为国米、尤文旧将的卡纳瓦罗,将AC米兰拉下马(无缘直接出线),也是值得开心的事情。
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